class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # Godly Governance ## Examining Support for Religious Governance
in Arab Muslim Majority Countries ### Fabio Votta
favstats
favstats.eu
@FabioFavusMaxim
fabio.votta@gmail.com
### 2018-29-06
Slides available at
godly-governance.netlify.com
--- <style> .onehundredtwenty { font-size: 120%; } <style> .ninety { font-size: 90%; } .eightyfive { font-size: 85%; } .eighty { font-size: 80%; } .seventyfive { font-size: 75%; } .seventy { font-size: 70%; } </style> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> .onehundredtwenty[ Research Question: > What role does religiosity play in support for religious governance? ] --- ## Starting Point + A commonly proposed explanation for the support for religious governance is that devout Muslims simply support it out of their religious convictions -- + This proposed relationship falls in danger to become tautological and essentialist in nature, leading to explanations that Muslims support religious governance *because they are Muslims* -- Tessler describes the problematic nature of such arguments as this > "mistakenly assume[s] that there are clear and uncontested definitions of what constitute [...] 'Muslim' orientations" and "[...] ignores the significant differences that exist between Arab and Muslim countries, as well as the equally important individual-level variation that exists within countries [...] associated with age, education, class, gender, ethnicity, and residence." <center> <i>Tessler, 2015, pp. 54-55</i> </center> --- ## Hypotheses **Secularization Theory** *(Norris & Inglehart, 2011)* > *H1a:* Increasing individual material resources marginalize support for religious governance. > *H1b:* Increasing intellectual resources marginalize support for religious governance. -- **Parochialism** > *H2:* Parochial viewpoints increase support for religious governance. -- **Patriarchal Values** > *H3:* Patriarchal Values increase support for religious governance. --- ## Hypotheses **The Role of Religiosity** > *H4a:* Religiosity increases support for religious governance. > *H4b:* Liberal interpretations of Islam decrease the support for religious governance. -- *Interactions* > *H4c:* If an individual endorses patriarchal values, religiosity has a *stronger effect* on the support for religious governance -- > *H4d:* If an individual endorses liberal interpretations of Islam, religiosity has a *diminished or even reversed effect* on the support for religious governance. --- class: inverse, center, middle ## Data & Methodology --- ## Data & Methodology + Merging of the following datasets: + Arabbarometer Survey Round 3 (data from 2014-2015) + Arabbarometer Survey Round 4 (data from 2015-2016) + In total 13.495 individual cases in 12 Arab countries + weighted with provided weight --- ### Dependent Variable - *Support for Islamism* .ninety[ *To what extent [do] you think these systems would be appropriate for your country?* + Religious leaders (imams, preachers, priests) should have influence over government decisions + Your country is better off if religious people hold public positions in the state + A system governed by Islamic law without elections or political parties + A parliamentary system (based on Islamic law) in which only Islamist parties compete in parliamentary elections ] -- <center> <img src="images/pca.png" height="180"> </center> --- ### Average Support by Country <br> <a href="https://github.com/favstats/godly_slides/raw/master/images/map_islamism_fin.png" target = "blank"> <img src="images/map_islamism_fin.png"> </a> --- #### Independent Variables *Secularization Theory* + Employment (0/1) + Financial Security + Education -- *Parochialism* + Do you think that the increase in global connectivity is a good or a bad thing for the society? -- *Religiosity* + Personal Piety + Do you pray daily? + Do you listen to or read the Quran? -- *Patriarchal Values* + A married woman can work outside the home. + In general, men are better at political leadership than women. + University education for males is more important than university education for females. --- #### Independent Variables *Liberal Islam* > The opinions of Islamic jurists and religious scholars differ and I want to ask to what extent you agree or disagree with some of these issues? + Democracy is a system that contradicts the teachings of Islam. + Gender-mixed education should be allowed in universities. + Women should wear modest clothes without needing to wear hijab. -- *Control Variables* + Sex (Male/Female) + Age + Year 2012 (0/1) + Year 2013 (0/1) + Year 2014 (0/1) --- class: inverse, center, middle ## Analysis & Results --- ## Analysis + Individuals are nested into countries, so that application of *multilevel models* is suitable + ICC: 14.66% of the variance of Islamism is bound on the country-level + Sequential approach + *Models 1-5* continually add one variable to the model + *Model 6* shows the main model with all variables + *Model 7-8* show estimated interaction effects + No severe violations of residual assumptions can be found --- <center> <a href="https://github.com/favstats/godly_slides/raw/master/images/regtable.png" target = "blank"> <img src="images/regtable.png" height="610"> </a> </center> --- ## Results - Main Effects <a href="https://github.com/favstats/godly_slides/raw/master/images/coefplot.png" target = "blank"> <img src="images/coefplot.png"> </a> --- ## Results - Interaction Effects I <br> <a href="https://github.com/favstats/godly_slides/raw/master/images/interactions.png" target = "blank"> <img src="images/interactions.png"> </a> --- ## Results - Interaction Effects II <br> <a href="https://github.com/favstats/godly_slides/raw/master/images/interactions2.png" target = "blank"> <img src="images/interactions2.png"> </a> --- class: inverse, center, middle ## Conclusions & Future Research --- ## Conclusions & Future Research + Financial Security shows no significant effect, whereas increased education and unemployment do -- + Parochialism and Patriarchal values both seem to increase the support for religious governance -- + Religion does matter and it matters *a lot* + However: Liberal interpretations of Islam decrease the support for religious governance + The moderating effects are *strongest* for the most religious individuals -- + Further studies in the field should account for the very diverse interpretations and multidimensionality of religion and religiosity in that context. -- + Much variation has been found between countries + Future research should consider case-studies of individual countries --- class: inverse, center, middle ## Thank You! Full Paper: <a href='http://www.academia.edu/36488238/Godly_Governance_A_Cross-National_Examination_of_Religious_Politics_in_Arab_Muslim-Majority_Countries'>Godly Governance</a> Slides: <a href='https://godly-governance.netlify.com'>godly-governance.netlify.com </a> Code and Data on <a href='https://github.com/favstats/GodlyGovernance'>GitHub</a> --- ## References *Norris, P., & Inglehart, R. (2011). Sacred and secular: Religion and politics worldwide. Cambridge University Press.* *Tessler, M. (2015). Islam and Politics in the Middle East: Explaining the Views of Ordinary Citizens. Indiana University Press.* --- class: inverse, center, middle ## Appendix --- <br> <a href="https://github.com/favstats/godly_slides/raw/master/images/summary.png" target = "blank"> <img src="images/summary.png"> </a> --- class: center, middle <a href="https://github.com/favstats/godly_slides/raw/master/images/diagnostics.png" target = "blank"> <img src="images/diagnostics.png" height="600"> </a> --- class: center, middle <a href="https://github.com/favstats/godly_slides/raw/master/images/heatmap.png" target = "blank"> <img src="images/heatmap.png" height="600"> </a>